Civilizational dynamics, quantified. 让文明动力学可以被量化与审计。
We build quantitative frameworks that connect macro data, institutional dynamics, and long-run civilizational trends – and apply them to questions such as sovereign risk, public debt, and structural fragility. 我们尝试把能源、人口、制度与意义等缓慢变量显式建模，并与公开宏观数据结合， 用统一的结构框架来分析主权风险、公共债务与长期结构性脆弱性。
当前首个落地方向是 SRC 主权风险审计：在公开数据基础上， 通过「承载力」(Capacity)、「负载」(Burden) 与「结构失衡」(Imbalance) 的指数， 对单个国家进行结构化体检与情景推演。
What is “civilizational dynamics”? 什么是「文明动力学」？
Modern societies are shaped by slow variables – energy, demographics, institutions, and meaning systems – that move much more slowly than markets or news cycles. Civilizational dynamics is an attempt to model these slow variables explicitly. 现代社会真正决定长期走向的是一组「缓慢变量」——能源结构、人口与代际压力、 制度能力，以及支撑社会运转的意义与叙事系统。这些变量远比市场价格和新闻周期 变化得更慢，而传统模型往往对它们缺乏结构化刻画。「文明动力学」就是试图把 这些缓慢变量显式建模。
Three structural dimensions 三大结构维度
- Capacity (C): productive energy, human capital, institutional competence – how much the system can realistically do. 承载力 C：生产性能源、人力资本与制度执行能力， 即一个国家在现实约束下「能做多少」。
- Burden (B): debt, demographic pressure, and structural obligations – how much weight the system must carry. 负载 B：公共债务、人口与养老压力、刚性承诺等， 即「必须扛起多少」。
- Lock-in: how hard it is for the system to change course given its institutions and political economy. 锁死度：在既有制度与政治经济结构下，系统改变方向的难度。
By quantifying these dimensions, we can track how countries drift into structural imbalance long before conventional indicators flash red. 通过对这三者进行量化，我们可以在传统指标亮红灯之前， 更早看到一个国家如何逐步滑向结构性失衡。
From theory to audits 从理论到审计
The same civilizational dynamics framework underpins our applied work in sovereign risk: the SRC Sovereign Audit. Capacity, burden and imbalance indices are constructed from open data and linked to spreads and scenarios. SRC 主权审计正是基于这套文明动力学框架：利用公开宏观与制度数据构建 承载力、负载与失衡指数，并与利差和情景路径相连，形成一套可复用的 主权风险「结构体检」流程。
SRC Sovereign Risk Audit SRC 主权风险审计
A structured, open-data sovereign risk assessment for individual countries. Delivered entirely via email – concise research notes and chart packs, no calls or meetings required. 面向单个国家的结构化主权风险体检，完全基于公开数据构建。 交付形式为简明的研究报告与图表包，全流程通过电子邮件异步完成， 无需任何电话或会议。
What problem does SRC solve? SRC 试图解决什么问题？
Traditional sovereign analysis relies on debt-to-GDP, deficits, ratings and spreads. These are useful, but they often miss slow-burn structural vulnerabilities. 传统主权分析依赖债务率、赤字、评级与利差等指标，但这些往往难以捕捉 「慢性、结构性」的风险累积。
- Demographic pressure that builds up over decades 几十年累积的人口与养老压力
- Institutional lock-in and social fragmentation 制度锁死与社会撕裂
- The widening gap between a state's obligations and its real capacity 国家承诺与现实承载力之间不断扩大的缺口
SRC makes these slow variables explicit and quantifiable by constructing indices for capacity \(C_t\), burden \(B_t\), and structural imbalance \(Imbalance_t = B_t - C_t\). SRC 通过对承载力 C_t、负载 B_t 与结构失衡 Imbalance_t = B_t − C_t 的指数化刻画，让这些缓慢变量变得可量化、可比较。
What you receive for a country audit 一次国家审计包含哪些内容？
- Research note (10–15 pages) – historical indices, structural interpretation of key episodes, and 3–5 year scenarios. 研究简报（约 10–15 页）： 覆盖历史指数、关键事件的结构解读，以及 3–5 年情景路径。
- Chart pack – a compact set of high-resolution charts ready to be used in internal memos or slide decks. 图表包：一组可直接用于内部备忘录或汇报材料的高分辨率图表。
- One round of email Q&A – you send questions in one batch, and receive a structured written reply. 一轮电子邮件问答：由对方集中提问，我以书面形式统一回复。
Everything is documented in writing – efficient for busy teams and easy to circulate internally. 所有沟通与结果都以书面形式呈现，方便忙碌团队在内部流转与沉淀。
Research and working papers 研究与工作论文
Civilizational Dynamics Lab is an independent research effort focused on linking macro data, institutional dynamics, and long-run civilizational patterns. Civilizational Dynamics Lab 是一个独立研究项目， 聚焦于宏观数据、制度演化与文明长期动力之间的结构性联系。
Civilizational Dynamics and Sovereign Risk: A Structural Assessment of France 《文明动力学与主权风险：法国的结构性评估》
Working paper, 2025. France, 1995–2024. Public macro and institutional data; structural indices for capacity, burden, and imbalance; scenario analysis for 2025–2027. 2025 年工作论文。以 1995–2024 年法国为样本，使用公开宏观与制度数据， 构建承载力、负载与结构失衡指数，并对 2025–2027 年进行情景分析。
[Link to SSRN forthcoming] – this case study doubles as a public demonstration of the SRC framework. SSRN 链接上线后将更新于此；该案例同时作为 SRC 框架的公共示范。
Additional theoretical and applied work on civilizational dynamics will be added here as the research program evolves. 随着研究计划推进，更多关于文明动力学的理论与应用工作论文 将在此汇总。
Contact 联系
For inquiries about SRC sovereign audits or the broader civilizational dynamics research program, please contact: 如需了解 SRC 主权风险审计服务，或希望进一步交流文明动力学相关研究， 欢迎通过电子邮件联系：
David Wang
Civilizational Dynamics Lab
Email (lab):
实验室邮箱：
contact@civilizationaldynamicslab.com
Email (direct):
个人邮箱：
david@civilizationaldynamicslab.com
All collaboration is conducted asynchronously via email and written documents. No calls or meetings are required. 所有合作均通过电子邮件与书面文档异步完成，无需电话或会议。